that nintendo has mentioned trying to beat the ps2. in the past all i can remember are predictions of like 70 million. looks like their going to be shooting for the stars. seems pretty possible to me. i mean, you get a lot of the 100 million from the ps2, seeing as the wii is the only system that is really affordable to most casual gamers, and then you have a huge new audience. if they can keep good games coming in, they have a shot at this.
That’s quite a task to do. Wow never thought I’d here Nintendo say that, especially Iwata. Well they can try. Wether they’ll do it not who knows. The highest I’ve ever see Wii saling was 80 million but who knows.
Cid wrote:
I’d shit myself, but I don’t see the Wii passing 50 million.
I think 50 million is probably a good number set where Wii has the best chance of saling. I mean Nintenod already has planned to ship 20 million by the end of March 2008. And really getting 30 million after that in 3 years shouldn’t be that hard to do even with a significant declin in sales over time.
Cid wrote:
I’d shit myself, but I don’t see the Wii passing 50 million.
I think 50 million is probably a good number set where Wii has the best chance of saling. I mean Nintenod already has planned to ship 20 million by the end of March 2008. And really getting 30 million after that in 3 years shouldn’t be that hard to do even with a significant declin in sales over time.
Yeah that’s pretty much what I’m thinking. I’m also thinking that Nintendo will be releasing another, more powerful, console within 3 years. So that they can not only have a console for the casual gamer but also have another, more powerful, more expensive, console for the Core gamer as well.
I love Twilight Princess and all, but I would LOVE to see a Zelda game with graphics that can compare to things like Halo 3 and MGS4.
Probably just wishful thinking and outlandish ideas, but I can dream, right?
Nah, no way. At most it will sell 35-40 million, imo. It’d have to last 6-7 years or more(selling at a great pace as well) to beat out the ps2, and with the wii hardware, it never would last that long.
I saw an article on CNN yesterday similar to what your saying Kev. It was about how Wii might just pass the PS2 in sales. Not sure if that article is still there though.
Hiroshama Nakasaki Is Back wrote:
Nah, no way. At most it will sell 35-40 million, imo. It’d have to last 6-7 years or more(selling at a great pace as well) to beat out the ps2, and with the wii hardware, it never would last that long.
That’s actually a good point. It takes a lot of time for it to reach that. Right now Wii is on a pace to ship 15-17 million a year. And if it got stronger possibly 20 million. But it need to stay very strong for at least 7-8 years to pass what PS2 will end with. But the difference between Wii and PS2 is PS2 stole brandname and completely obliterateed the competition before they released. Wii would have to reach that while competition is out and so far history has proven this impossible. Wii could definetly outsell the NES, which would be nice to Nintendo, but 130-140 million just seems a little too far out there. As I said I only see the top tier for possibly saling of Wii is 80 million just cause the 8th generation is going to start quicker than we all think.
This is definite PR talk and we’ll leave it pretty much at that. If there is anything that is set to outsell the PS2 when it dies it would be the DS. It has the best chance.
But just to clarify there is no console this generation that will sale 100 million. At this point only the 360, cause of early release date, had an opportunity but they didn’t use their 1 year headstart wisely so they can’t do it. PS3 will not have a chance to do it cause it’s started off way to slowly to somehow jump up to PS2 sales especially with Wii saling amazing and 360 still saling good. And with the 8th generation to start in 2010-2011 it just wouldn’t have the time.
RageOverdose wrote:
If Nintendo’s marketing and their ideas come to place with the Touch Generation series of games, then it would very well happen. But, doubtful.
The only way they could beat the PS2 is if they do what it did, release a second version and make many fail 2-3 years after launch.
Well Nintendo doesn’t need to do that with the DS for it easily to pass 100 million in sales. But judging by the situation DS is really set to make some records. As of March 2007 it had 40 million shipped. As of now they are shipping abour 6-7 million every non holiday quarter and 10 million in the holiday quarter. That’s about 28-31 million a year. So if that stands true, which it should cause DS is only increasing in sales not decreasing then by the end of his year Nintendo should have about 62-65 million DS’s shipped. By the end of 2008 they should have 90-93 shipped. And with no new handheld coming until at least 2010-2011 timeframe it’ll stay strong at least through 2009. Putting it at about 118-121 million shipped.
As you can see if Nintendo’s pace and shipping stays strong DS should top there number easy in the next 3-4 years. DS is moving at a pace that really is something else.
Of course this is only a very simple and basic look at it. Of course there are other factors that could come in and slow or increase shipments. But the one thing to note is that GBA is still saling alright in America. Meaning the American market hasn’t fully switced to the DS and PSP generation. And whne GBA finally dies out DS sales will increase even more there. So it’ll be interesting to see if DS can do this but this is a preliminary look just from a simple shipment and trend point of view.
The DS also has two versions, don’t forget. Granted, the DS lite has done insanely well just by itself, but its really picking up on what the original DS was doing. Nintendo has always had rampant success in the handheld market, as the Advance pretty much matched the PS2. So, if you implement their new strategy to the next handheld, you pretty much have dominated the market.
But the Wii is another story. Its doing very well, to be sure, but its not a handheld. 50 million sounds like a good estimate, unless they plan something else for it.
